It is simply not true when the Jeffco CFO tells the Board that an anticipated loss of 350 students will result in a loss of $3M in revenue or $8,571 per student.
This statement is predicated on 2 assumptions:
1. That all revenue the District receives is based on student count
2. That a loss of students results in an immediate loss of revenue
Neither of those two assumptions is true.
1. Only state revenue to the District is based on student count. Local property tax and ownership tax receipts to the District are NOT based on student count. The District will get the same amount of revenue no matter the student count from local property taxes and ownership taxes. Only approximately $380M of funding comes from the state which means the state funds only $4,700 per student. Therefore, the only revenue loss would be a maximum of $1.7M, NOT $3M.
2. However, Colorado mitigates the loss of revenue due to loss of students by basing District funding on the 5 year average of student count if student count declines. Therefore, when a District loses students, the real first year loss of state funding is only 1/5 of the actual student loss count. In this case 70 students or approximately $350,000, in the first year – 2020-2021. That’s a far cry from $3M that Askelson is telling the Board.
Finally, Askelson’s gloom and doom presentation also only shows one side of the Accounting ledger. Her presentation is based on the assumption that a loss of revenue results in absolutely ZERO reduction in costs. Again, this is a false assumption. Individual schools are ‘paid’ by the District on a per student basis via SBB funding. At approximately $5,500 per student for SBB (page 24 of Budget) and a loss of 350 students, the District’s expenses are reduced by approximately $1.9M.
In conclusion, instead of a $3M loss of revenue, Jeffco, in Year 1, only loses approx. $350,000 in state revenue but also has a corresponding cost reduction of $1.9M, for a net positive impact of $1.5M. Taking into account that Askelson told the Board they would be losing $3M the difference is $4.5M, or more than enough to prevent a furlough day, or prevent the closing of schools.